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S Curve of electric vehicles
Magarajeswari R
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“Every idea looks crazy at first “ - Alfred North Whitehead

A few decades ago when the concept of Electric Vehicles was introduced, it had a good response among the people. Then the practical challenges involved in maintaining and operating were analyzed and people started to move towards ICE. Over the years Electric Vehicle ecosystem has evolved a lot and guess what? Now the tables have turned. Electric Vehicle Sales have accelerated in a significant fashion in recent times.

Primary reasons attributing to this growth are as follows:

  • Launch of futuristic models by the various OEMs.
  • Schemes and Initiative by the Government.
  • Extensive Involvement by the startup ecosystem.
  • Usage of electric vehicles for last-mile delivery.
  • Word of mouth by the early adopter segment.

So now we have understood that the electric vehicle segment is growing and the possible reasons contributing to the same. But have you ever wondered how this has evolved and what future does this segment hold? In general, the evolution of a product or a technology, or innovation is understood better with an S-curve. Feels like you are hearing it for the first time? We are happy that you hear it from us.

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S curve is a method to measure how fast a particular innovation or a technology scales up over a certain period of time. Whenever a new technology is developed, its growth is analyzed and predicted over time. By this method, we will try to analyze the growth and future of electric vehicles. The electric vehicle market started to emerge in the year 2010. In the emerging phase primary hindrance to the growth of electric vehicles is the cost. Batteries accounted for up to 60-70% of the entire vehicle cost. Scientists and researchers from various parts of the world vigorously worked with various cell chemistries and then came the Lithium-Ion batteries. In the past decade, Lithium-ion batteries demand has significantly increased and the prices have simultaneously reduced. Tesla being a pioneer in the EV market has done considerable research and as a brand, they have influenced battery technology a lot.

Currently, we are in the growth phase of the s-curve and the innovations in the powertrain section are pacing at a rapid rate. High-density batteries, Regenerative braking, high power motors, swappable batteries are some of the noteworthy advancements attributing to the growth phase of the curve. Charging infrastructure has a major influence in this phase as this reduces the anxiety of range prevailing among the consumers. Kazam is proud to be a part of this infrastructure and thus contribute to the expansion of the electric vehicle market.

In the initial phase of development, certain analysts and experts from various parts of the world made an assumption that the sales of eclectic vehicles will be in few thousand by 2020. Amidst the pandemic, the EV market saw an impeccable growth of 39% in sales in the year 2020. As per the recent reports, the sales of electric vehicles are about to increase aggressively in the upcoming years. We can clearly understand that the electric vehicle segment has surpassed the traditional s curve growth.

Key Takeaways:

  • The total addressable market of electric vehicles is about to increase exponentially.
  • Ways of analyzing the growth of an innovation or a technology.
  • The price of a high technology product will decrease with the increase in demand.
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